Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 20.340827 23.176624 26.233624 29.770188 33.744905 38.070062 43.129065
2024-12-22 16.218451 20.070245 24.541412 30.099535 36.807218 44.623746 54.404935
2024-12-29 13.982472 18.243213 23.427838 30.172263 38.682426 49.029691 62.526737
2025-01-05 12.677382 17.326251 23.221059 31.197725 41.657043 54.845665 72.668719
2025-01-12 11.167414 15.906937 22.140503 30.874344 42.719313 58.137261 79.623384
2025-01-19 9.502529 14.077401 20.306199 29.324059 41.946614 58.870256 83.136817
2025-01-26 8.852955 13.571942 20.193128 30.054830 44.239181 63.745630 92.405197
2025-02-02 8.312443 13.157112 20.147578 30.836593 46.601739 68.793819 102.134793
2025-02-09 7.580984 12.380762 19.498345 30.663599 47.536579 71.828974 109.117219
2025-02-16 6.877993 11.577516 18.732410 30.235125 48.027152 74.198234 115.197687
2025-02-23 6.395670 11.074329 18.374560 30.381729 49.358319 77.829905 123.277880
2025-03-02 5.999916 10.673085 18.137182 30.682394 50.917074 81.847846 132.099366
2025-03-09 5.590863 10.224892 17.805915 30.832431 52.283436 85.700191 140.968043
2025-03-16 5.145899 9.676322 17.267589 30.602361 53.017874 88.598178 148.490930
2025-03-23 4.838219 9.337173 17.046021 30.867552 54.548800 92.794955 158.229360
2025-03-30 4.678818 9.249021 17.243004 31.848327 57.314095 99.098912 171.654726
2025-04-06 4.325668 8.772428 16.722669 31.540872 57.859658 101.770683 179.215277
2025-04-13 3.815325 7.953627 15.528558 29.952378 56.081306 100.457121 180.027285
2025-04-20 3.682113 7.850782 15.629143 30.700106 58.441677 106.238124 193.093633
2025-04-27 3.563644 7.766262 15.755199 31.496570 60.922723 112.327220 206.944375
2025-05-04 3.330065 7.428996 15.377010 31.320426 61.616356 115.320555 215.518797
2025-05-11 3.084581 7.045588 14.881050 30.883344 61.793520 117.392914 222.536405
2025-05-18 2.924853 6.828952 14.696289 31.032893 63.069897 121.476937 233.308861